3. At this time, many fields, especially the social sciences, almost exclusively teach and use explanatory models and methods, even when their research goals are predictive in nature and would be better served by using predictive methods and models.
4. Predictive methods don't need to be used in isolation; they can be used to further the theory in a domain and its explanatory (causal) models. (See the second paper for *how*.)
The presentation sensitized me to a few big things:
1. Research goals and theories can have either an explanatory/retrospectively descriptive nature or a predictive/forward-looking nature.
2. Depending on the type, the research can and likely should be conducted differently.
I've really been enjoying these two papers since watching a video presentation about the first one:
1. Shmueli, G., "To Explain or To Predict?", Statistical Science, vol. 25, issue 3, pp. 289-310, 2010.
- Video presentation: https://youtu.be/whD2sYFHW8c
2. Shmueli, G., and O. Koppius, "Predictive Analytics in Information Systems Research", MIS Quarterly, vol. 35, issue 3, pp. 553-572, 2011.
PDFs available here: https://www.galitshmueli.com/biblio/term/Explain-Predict
#statistics #theory #modeling #prediction
So, I was supposed to facilitate a workshop earlier this week on non-disposable and renewable assignments in philosophy classes. Unfortunately I was sick, and as the workshop was at an in-person conference, I ended up cancelling so as not to spread my illness.
However, I put a lot of work into a handout for the workshop, with a link to an even longer doc with more info! https://blogs.ubc.ca/chendricks/2022/04/11/handout-workshop-renewable/
Scholar.social and #academics on other instances: any interest in a virtual writing group this summer? I've chatted with a few people who are looking for such support.
I, for instance, don't really know how much more it'd cost me to switch to renewables, though my electricity provider vaguely provides the option to pay more for it.
Are any of you familiar with a data source that shows the ratio of the price of renewable electricity to the price of nonrenewable electricity?
I've seen similar charts in the crypto space (framing the price of an Ethereum token in terms of # of Bitcoins, for instance), and it seems like such a thing would be useful for watching the relative prices of each and potentially leading people to switch to renewables.
#economics #energyprices #renewables #data
Bees relying on pollen microbes in their diets provides a mechanism by which some of the things we spray plants with (anti fungals and other anti pest stuff) contributes to bee decline - it takes all the meat out of their diet and leaves them with just potatoes
@bthall remember the old adage:
if you don't have to worry about food & rent, you are doing fine
the rest is an optional extra, and can take its time, no stress
I've been a lot more chill over the past few weeks. I'd been stressing for a long while about my career and wanting to get to a point where I can professionally work on #economics or #statistics stuff that interest me, but I think I'll just do that in my free time for now. (As an independent scholar.)
My current job is fine for me, seems secure, and is quite complimentary to my interests, so I'll just find fulfillment on my own time instead of struggling to force it into my career. 😅
@socrates Thanks for helping me with my account! Do the emails get directly routed to your Mastodon account or something? You responded super quick!
I've rediscovered my love of fake (and funny) Confucius sayings. 😂
I love how simultaneously irreverent and reverent it is towards #philosophy to attribute funny sayings to philosophers.
my two big tips for PhD students:
1. be very skeptical of doing anything that's not putting a roof over your head or going in your dissertation.
2. try to make it so what's paying you is also going into your dissertation.
3. BONUS TIP: it helps if your ideas work, but if they don't, fail quickly. don't fail slowly.
I made a simple prototype of my idea for a skateboarding trick logging system using a free mobile app that lets you setup databases. After trying to use it a bit, I've figured out that my idea for a web app that does the same thing would be very tedious to use without a lot of additional designing and engineering (learning on my part) in its current, rudimentary form. Yay for less expensive (in terms of time and effort) methods of testing ideas! I'll write up my learnings soon.
It's funny how finally articulating your question(s) to an expert, especially with the hope of them helping you with it, leads you to figure out a likely solution(s).
I sent a question to some experts in quant and right as/after I hit the send button I got what feels like the solution. Don't worry, I wrote it down! (Here in the EDIT section, if you're curious: https://reddit.com/r/statistics/comments/ooofof/weekly_rstatistics_discussion_what_problems/h6a8p1d)
@bthall The thing about grad school is that the process that for me helped me learn how to think more critically was
1. Reading complex texts everyday
2. Writing weekly analyses and arguments based on those texts
3. Getting those analyses ripped to shreds, and being pushed to think and go deeper
4. Having my hubris destroyed (thank God)
Grad school is just doing those things all the time hyper-intensively and in a guided fashion BUT grad school isn't the only way to do those things.
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