I think I may be hitting "exhausted", but that's another matter.

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Finding myself increasingly treading the fine line between "exhaustive" and "exhausting" when I write.

Accumulating increasingly large piles of non-sequitur as I edit this paper. Need to remedy this ASAP.

re: general sadness 

@esty Oh yikes, that’s a lot to get through. It’s awful that you’re having to go through all that in addition to what you’re grappling with outside of academic stuff, too.

re: general sadness 

@esty That sounds exhausting, and I’m sorry you’re dealing with that. I hope you’re able to find some ways to rest and/or to do something else for yourself.

@esty Oh nice! Now I’m also wondering how much forecast quality in a given country is related to radar/station coverage and surface area. Weather radars in Canada are relatively sparse but that makes sense given the population density/amount of resources. I guess they probably still focus on densely populated areas, but nevertheless.

Genuinely unsure if it rained today. Forgot to look out the window, oops. Looks dry outside but it was very sunny earlier.

I guess I can ask around or check today’s historical records tomorrow.

@esty I go a bit overboard because I bounce between several weather apps, though I like that Windy lets you compare multiple forecast models. That said, in practice I seem to get best results from staring at the radar and going with my hunches, haha. Storms have a habit of splitting up and avoiding downtown completely, here!

I am yet again lamenting the unpredictability of precipitation.

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Might be getting a big thunderstorm today. Preemptively went home to avoid it, but now I’m wondering if it won’t just bypass me the way storms tend to, here. Though there was a moment of intense precip earlier this week.

@esty Ah dang, that’s quite a bit of writing. Wish I had any helpful advice; in any case, I hope it goes okay for you, hang in there!

@esty Oof, that’s coming up! But at least it’ll be out of the way relatively soon? (Small consolation I guess, sorry 😅)

@esty Oof, yeah, that’s definitely the experience. When is it happening for you?

@esty The cool thing is that a lot of this is actually a model-observation comparison! The main part of this paper is that they produce a year-round ice thickness record (previously they were missing the melt season). I can see why they got this in Nature :P

@esty Seems like it! “Strong correlations between SIV and future SIE develop only when the sea-ice-albedo feedback acts to enhance existing SIT anomalies at the onset of the Arctic melt season.”

I’ve just been skimming it, so I don’t know all the details, though.

@esty Oh, I forgot to mention I figured it out in my earlier reply; lead refers to "lead time" (as in lead/lag correlation). Eg. for fig a, September (target day) sea ice extent is strongly correlated with volume from the previous May onwards, while December SIE is strongly correlated with mid-March-July SIV.

@esty It's this figure; a and b were confusing me: nature.com/articles/s41586-022

The diagonals threw me off; it finally clicked when I realized that c is a vertical slice of a and b, and the diagonals are necessary because each month has different months leading up to it.

Trying to understand a lagged correlation plot but my brain is melting a bit. I was feeling so motivated for reading papers with breakfast, but I think I need to be awake to actually process them!

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